Legend of Tarzan Trailer Hits 17M Views — Doubles Independence Day For Views in the Month of January
Everyone knows the trailer is the single most important aspect of a movie promotion — and in the YouTube era, there are certain metrics that tell certain tales. In the case of Legend of Tarzan, the tale that’s being told is an interesting and encouraging one.
For starters, if you had looked at its first 48 hours versus the first 48 hours of its main competition, it was clear that expectations and excitement were low. Consider the following figures for 48 hours after release:
48 Hours After Release
13.3M — Independence Day Resurgence
9.5M — Star Trek Beyond
4.8M — Legend of Tarzan
3.8 M — The BFG
Clearly LOT had a slow start , but then look what happened:
On Dec 31
16.9M — Independence Day Resurgence (Up 3.6M)
13.3M — Legend of Tarzan (Up 8.5M)
12.8M — Star Trek Beyond (Up 2.7M)
6.3 M — The BFG (Up 2.5M)
This is very interesting — and pay close attention to the falloff for both Independence Day and Star Trek. Both had a lot of excitment prior to the release of the trailer. After the release — not so much. Are those films in trouble? The buzz is that ID2 might be. Star Trek – no one is sure, but the concensus is that the trailer misfired by being too “Guardians of the Galaxy” and not “Star Trek” enough. No one knows whether the movie will work or not, but the trailer didn’t help.
Now let’s look at Jan 30:
On Jan 30
18.8M — Independence Day Resurgence (Jan Total 1.9M)
17.0M — Legend of Tarzan (Jan Total 3.7M)
15.7 M — Star Trek Beyond (Jan Total .8M)
6.7 M — The BFG (Jan Total .4M)
Those are epic numbers for Legend of Tarzan. And what we’re seeing is that in every category except the first 48 hours, it’s the class of the field.
Will this translate into ultimate success? It’s impossible to really know. But you’ve got to give the trailer credit for have overcome a pretty heavy degree of doubt and muscled its way into the discussion as a genuine contender for the July box office dollars that are out there. One thing for sure — LOT is no weakling in this field — not if the trailer performance can be relied on to forecast anything.
Here’s the January performance looks on a chart. Just sayin’ . . . . .
9 comments
Amazing! It’s indeed very encouraging. I’m looking at the numbers from time to time and the amount from 15M to 16M seemed especially fast to me.
I think that anything Star Trek tends to skew things when making an analysis. Even “bad” Star Trek has earned out eventually – AMT model kits of the Enterprise, Romulan Warbird and Klingon D7 are still hot items on Ebay.
In other words, I don’t think that Star Trek can be compared to other films, or even other film franchises, in meaningful ways as it is a beast unto itself.
Yes, I think the underperformance of the Star Trek trailer is more a function of director Justin Liu modeling the trailer on his Guardian of the Galaxy trailer . . . and people didn’t like that, they wanted a Star Trek trailer that felt like Star Trek. But that was just the teaser trailer and they will probably sort it all out by the time the next trailer comes out, and Star Trek will probably do well. Coming out three weeks after LOT, it doesn’t affect LOT nearly as much as ID2, which comes out the week before LOT and stands to be a major stumbling block to LOT success if, for example, it opens at 100m and thus does 50-60m on its second weekend. That would create a weekend with a 50++M holdover and two films opening — LOT and BFG. There is only so much box office to go around and under that scenario, LOT projects to open at maybe 35m which will not lead to a sequel even if the film develops pretty good legs. It’s crucial for LOT to open at least at 40m and probably 50m to end up getting a sequel. Bottom line for me is that I’m really truly hoping that ID2 is as lame as the trailer seems, and that it opens at something like 70m which would be at the very low end of what is expected. That would be very good news for LOT . . . .
Star Trek toys are still selling, that’s very true, but not the one related to the latest movies. The backlash towards the last movie, Into Darkness, was especially harsh. It was voted as the worst Star Trek movie at a convention. And I don’t quite think the Star Trek fans want to see their heroes stranded on a planet for the whole movie… We’ll see if Paramount manages to do some effective damage control on this one, since even Simon Pegg, the co-writer, dismissed the trailer publicly. But the goodwill of fans is maybe already worn out by the former movie. As for Independence Day 2, the first one is wildly regarded as either a bad movie overall or a guilty pleasure. Again, we’ll see out the marketing will turn out. No Will Smith will be a hard sell. Even if his name doesn’t necessarily translate into huge box-office these days, he’s very tied to Independence Day in the public consciousness. And also see the numbers of likes/dislikes of both trailers. Yes, IDR is still ahead in sheer viewing numbers but it has 78K likes and Legend of Tarzan has 97K likes, both have about 4K dislikes (about 300 more for IDR!).Star Trek had 57K likes (24K dislikes!) and 47K for The BFG.
I haven’t heard anyone say that IDR is in danger of flopping . . . . but while not wishing ill on those filmmakers, I do secretly hope that the softness we’re seeing translates into IDR tanking when it’s released. There’s really nothing to grab onto in the trailer — and no Will Smith in the movie. I am dreaming of a $75M opening on 24 June and 60% dropoff to roughly $30m when it goes up against LOT. . . . .that would create a lane for LOT go do $50m which would pretty much guarantee a sequel if reviews are good and it has decent legs. My nightmare is the opposite of that …. IDR opens at 90M and drops off only 35% to around $60m. That leaves LOT and BFG fighting for shares in a much smaller pie; it creates negativity in the media with Tarzan being declared to have “lost” it’s opening weekend to a holdover. . . . and all the way down the line it leads to no sequel. What else can be done to sabotage IDR? (Just kidding.) (Sort of.)
Star Trek Beyond’s trailer doesn’t look like director Justin Lin’s Guardians of the Galaxy, as he didn’t direct that. It does, however, look a lot like a trailer for a Fast and Furious movie, of which he’s directed several. And having a F&F Star Trek penned by Simon Pegg might end up being very good, or very bad, with some funny parts.
As for IDR, the trailer looked so very space aliens invasion generic.
I go back and forth on IDR, there’s a lot of residual fondness for the first, and I think even if it doesn’t get good reviews it will probably do well the first weekend. But if it’s got good reviews AND good word of mouth it will eat into LOT’s box office. But it’s also possible there’s enough bad word of mouth to hold down initial box office. I’m not really paying attention right now to see whether or not there’s even an hint of IDR not actually doing well at screenings or that Fox is worried about it. Not even questionably sourced HR articles. 🙂
IDR’s numbers will go up post-Super Bowl, because Fox is going to be promoting it there, even if it doesn’t air the trailer:
“Deadpool isn’t the only Fox title using the game and convergence of the world’s press to whip up headlines. The cast of Independence Day: Resurgence (June 24), including Liam Hemsworth and Jeff Goldblum, will attend the Super Bowl, while one or two actors from X-Men: Apocalypse (May 27) could be on hand. Major on-the-ground events are also planned for those titles, as well as sports comedy Eddie the Eagle (Feb. 26), but insiders are keeping mum as to what they are…
Sony and Warner Bros. are sitting this year out, according to insiders. There also will be several movie ads during the pre-kickoff show.
While Warner Bros. hasn’t bought an ad proper, it’s possible a promotional partner could plug Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, starring Ben Affleck and Henry Cavill, in their spot, sources say. (Rival studios say they wouldn’t be surprised if some of the cast were at the Super Bowl.)”
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/super-bowl-ryan-reynolds-deadpool-860289?utm_source=twitter
Yes, I saw that. I didn’t expect LOT to have a Super Bowl ad . . . . .timing is right, given how much it costs. It will be interesting to see how muh of a bump IDR gets if it’s just that kind of promotion — stars at the game, etc. I’m very happy with Tarzan’s position. I think if WB makes too much noise too soon it will invite negativity on a lot of levels. I wouldn’t mind if Margot Robbie and Askars would show up at the Super Bowl . . . . but nothing more than that yet and if they don’t show up — no big deal.
Don’t forget the Alexander Skarsgard fans are very excited for this movie.