Legend of Tarzan 3rd Weekend Off to a Good Start With $3.2M Friday, Will Pass $100M Cum. Tonight
SATURDAY MORNING 7AM: Legend of Tarzan is off to a solid start for its third weekend; in fact, by Friday night there had already been one upgrade. Deadline in its Friday afternoon report had LOT at $9.7M for the weekend based on matinee results, but when the full results were in at the end of the day, LOT was at $3.2M for the day (still an estimate, but an end-of-day estimate) so Deadline upgraded the weekend forecast to 11.0M.
On Monday we made our projections through this weekend. So far so good — in our projections we had LOT at $95,113,971 thru Friday vs actuals now for the same period of $95,130,257. If past patterns hold, the $3.2M Friday will get upgraded a bit when actuals are in, and it now seems certain LOT will pass the $100M mark tonight, Saturday.
Here are our projections versus the actuals since Monday:
Below are the top 10 films and notables according to industry estimates for the weekend of July 15-17:
1). The Secret Life of Pets (ILL/UNI), 4,381 theaters (+11) / $15.3M Fri. (-60%)/ 3-day cume: $50.6M (-52%)/Total Cume: $203.4M/Wk 2
2). Ghostbusters (SONY), 3,963 theaters (+11) / $17.1M Fri. (includes $3.4M previews)/ 3-day cume: $45M /Wk 1
3/4). Finding Dory (DIS), 3,535 theaters (-335) / $3.2M Fri. (-49%)/ 3-day cume: $11M (-47%)/Total cume: $102.3M/Wk 5
The Legend of Tarzan (WB), 3,551 theaters (-40) / $3.2M Fri. (-48%) / 3-day cume: $11M (-48%)/Total cume: $102.3M/Wk 3
5). Mike and David Need Wedding Dates (FOX), 3,008 theaters (+26) / $2.3M Fri. (-65%) / 3-day cume: $7M (-58%)/Total cume: $30.8M/Wk 2
6). The Purge: Election Day (UNI), 2,671 theaters (-150) / $1.9M Fri. (-53%) / 3-day cume: $5.9M (-52%)/Total cume: $70.9M/Wk 3
7). Central Intelligence (WB/NL/UNI), 2,381 theaters (-460) / $1.5M Fri. (-39%) / 3-day cume: $5.2M (-35%)/Total: $117.4M/ Wk 5
8). The Infiltrator (BG), 1,601 theaters / $1.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $4.6M/Total: $6M/Wk 1 Wed. opening
9). Independence Day: Resurgence (FOX), 2,290 theaters (-771) / $1.1M Fri. (-51%) /3-day cume: $3.8M(-51%)/Total: $99M/ Wk 4
10). The BFG (DIS), 2,182 theaters (-1,210) / $1.2M Fri. (-52%) / 3-day cume: $3.7M (-52%)/Total cume: $47.3M/Wk 3
UPDATE SATURDAY 9AM: Deadline is out with slightly refined figures.
Below are the top 10 films and notables according to industry estimates for the weekend of July 15-17 as of Saturday morning:
1). The Secret Life of Pets (ILL/UNI), 4,381 theaters (+11) / $15.1M Fri. (-61%)/ 3-day cume: $50.4M (-52%)/Total Cume: $203.7M/Wk 2
2). Ghostbusters (SONY), 3,963 theaters (+11) / $16.9M Fri. (includes $3.4M previews)/ 3-day cume: $44.5M /Wk 1
3.) The Legend of Tarzan (WB), 3,551 theaters (-40) / $3.24M Fri. (-48%) / 3-day cume: $11.5M (-45%)/Total cume: $103.4M/Wk 3
4). Finding Dory (DIS), 3,535 theaters (-335) / $3.29M Fri. (-49%)/ 3-day cume: $11M (-47%)/Total cume: $445.6M/Wk 5
5). Mike and David Need Wedding Dates (FOX), 3,008 theaters (+26) / $2.3M Fri. (-65%) / 3-day cume: $7.3M (-56%)/Total cume: $31.3M/Wk 2
6). The Purge: Election Day (UNI), 2,671 theaters (-150) / $1.9M Fri. (-53%) / 3-day cume: $5.9M (-52%)/Total cume: $70.9M/Wk 3
7). Central Intelligence (WB/NL/UNI), 2,381 theaters (-460) / $1.5M Fri. (-39%) / 3-day cume: $5.2M (-35%)/Total: $117.4M/ Wk 5
8). The Infiltrator (BG), 1,601 theaters / $1.49M Fri. / 3-day cume: $4.6M/Total: $6.1M/Wk 1 Wed. opening
9). The BFG (DIS), 2,182 theaters (-1,210) / $1.1M Fri. (-52%) / 3-day cume: $3.56M (-54%)/Total cume: $47.1M/Wk 3
10). Independence Day: Resurgence (FOX), 2,290 theaters (-771) / $960K Fri. (-56%) /3-day cume: $3.3M(-57%)/Total: $98.4M/ Wk 4
Notables:
Cafe Society (LG/AMZ), 5 theaters / $1114K Fri./3-day cume: $325K /PTA: $65K/Wk 1
Captain Fantastic (BST), 36 theaters (+32 / $75K Fri. (+158%)/3-day cume: $243K (+161%) /Total cume: $384K/Wk 2
Swiss Army Men (A24), 228 theaters (-372) / $72K Fri. (-65%) /3-day cume: $240K (-64%)/Total: $3.7M/Wk 4
3 comments
Any idea how its doing in Africa?
Oddly enough I noticed that Independence Day 2, which is viewed as a failure, is at 337M for a 165M budget. So even if Legend of Tarzan performs above expectations, will it be viewed as a success if it grosses 400M on a 180M budget?
I think IDR entered the market with huge expectations–they were talking 100m opening at one point and over 1B, so that factors into how it gets written about. My take on it is that it’s viewed as a disappointment, but not an absolute failure. I think with LOT, we face an opposite problem in that it was labeled a failure before it was ever released, and a lot of those writing about have an investment in it continuing to be labeled a failure, so rather than say hey, LOT is doing pretty well at 400m — they will say — yeah, so I was a little bit wrong saying it would only do 150m worldwide, but it’s STILL a failure because with a budget like that it needs to get to [insert number] or it’s still a failure so I”m still right and you’re still a fanboy…….haha. Like that.
So to be clear (because it may appear that I contradicted myself, but of course I didn’t!) ….
Narrative subtext for IDR is “Man, this movie should have done a 100M opening and 1B worldwide but it only did 41M and so at 400-500M it’s a big disappointment and way below what it should have been, man the studio and director screwed a good thing up, what a bunch of putzes, and my early prediction of 100m opening and 1B was really the right prediction if they hadn’t just screwed it up so badly. Those studio guys are idiots.”
Narrative subtext for LOT is: “Yeah, I know I said said it would do 64M domestic and 160 worldwide and yeah, it did 140 domestic and 260 worldwide, but so what, that’s still not enough because of the budget of 180m, and I’m still right and you’re dumb.”