I spent last night doing some number crunching to satisfy my desire to know, as definitively as possible, what the final domestic box office gross will be for Legend of Tarzan. I’ve been saying $130 to $140M without doing any particularly refined analysis. So let’s try some more serious analysis.
I took some comparable films — July releases, similar target demo, similar opening numbers, and did a a “check-in” on each at exactly the same point where LOT is now — which is day 28. This is actually where LOT was yesterday, i.e. after day 28, which was Thursday, the last day we have actuals for. Then I made a chart. Check it out.
Based on this, certain patterns are clear.
Now let’s apply the patterns to Tarzan.
And there you pretty much have it. The best case is a little better than we can hope for, and the worst case is more conservative than we need to be.
When you consider that the average prediction coming in to opening weekend was that it would end up somewhere in the $60-70M range, and when you layer in the strong headwinds from critics, it’s a pretty remarkable performance.
It’s enough to get us a “win” if the foreign will cooperate.
Will deal with foreign separately.
Let’s bask in our domestic glory for a minute.